Violent Conflict and Health Outcomes

Work Package Leader:
Prof. Debarati Guha-Sapir - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain

 
Projects
Project 22: Mortality, malnutrition and distress in conflict areas
Project 23: Violent conflicts and the spread of HIV/AIDS
Project 24: Life and health in conflict zones

Overview

Violent conflicts have a large and visible impact on health outcomes. In particular, armed conflicts generally have a very high impact on mortality rates, while most forms of violent conflict will cause injuries, ill-health and severe psychological damage to those involved in fights, to those living in war-torn communities and to displaced populations. These effects are often aggravated by a variety of factors, even after the end of conflict, such as the breakdown of health and social services and the loss of social capital and/or political trust.

There is, however, surprisingly little knowledge on the health consequences of violent conflict, partially due to difficulties associated with research on health issues in conflict areas, and partially due to the destruction of registration systems and possible misrepresentation of politicised information on the true levels of mortality and morbidity.

This Work Package develops new methods to trace empirically the links between violent mass conflicts and health outcomes. Its main objective is to compile existing descriptive and empirical evidence and suggest methods to improve measurement. Several ways of measuring and assessing the health effects of violent conflicts will be explored, by bringing together for the first time insights generated by a large body of epidemiology research in areas of conflict, with methods of socio-economic analysis, collective action theory and psychology.

Project 22: Mortality, malnutrition and distress in conflict areas

Project leader:
Prof. Debarati Guha-Sapir - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain
Project researchers:
Dr. Olivier Degomme and Dr. Florian Vogt - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain

Publications:

PB7: Mortality in Darfur: Lessons for Humanitarian Policy - Olivier Degomme

This project will examine the direct impact of violent conflicts on individual mortality, malnutrition and stress levels using health indicators that are compiled in the Complex Emergency Database (CE-DAT), managed by the Centre for Research in the Epidemiology of Disasters. The project aims to (i) compute excess deaths in conflict-affected populations as an indicator of the level of human destruction caused by violence; (ii) analyse the extent of epidemics and contagious disease outbreaks during and after a conflict, in particular in terms of mass displacement of affected populations (link with WP6); (iii) construct a unique model linking risk factors for mortality, morbidity and mental distress of conflicts at the household and community level. Countries of analysis include (but are not limited to) Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia (which will be linked with the survey used in project 11: Displaced populations in Colombia), Côte D’Ivoire, D R Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan and Uganda.

Project 23: Violent conflicts and the spread of HIV/AIDS

Project leader:
Dr. Adeline Delavante - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Project researcher:
Ricardo Cordeiro - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa

This project will examine the spread of HIV/AIDS in the context of violent mass conflicts. This project will use theoretical models of decision-making under uncertainty and rich data provided by the Demographic and Health Surveys for Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda and Zimbabwe. It aims to identify the various mechanisms that may cause disruption in risk-prevention strategy.

Project 24: Life and health in conflict zones

Project leader:
Dr. Morten Bøås – Fafo Institute of Applied International Studies
Project researchers:
Dr. Anne Hatløy and Henriette Lunde – Fafo Institute of Applied International Studies

This project examines health consequences of long-term conflicts in IDP camps in Northern Uganda. The project will review new household data from Northern Uganda gathered during 2005. These data sets include the WHO (2005) Mortality Study and Fafo AIS’ study for UNDP on IDP living conditions and displacement history.